"The small bulk carrier business will see an improvement clearly over the next three to six months," said president Chanet Phenjati. "From the statistics, I expect the supply of ships will get close to the demand probably in the next three months. Then outlook of the business would start to improve."

About 60% of the global fleet is old with an average age over 25 years. Ageing ships tend to be demolished when market conditions are tough, said Mr Chanet.

In October alone, 38 vessels with a combined capacity of 1.3 million deadweight tonnes (DWT) were demolished, bringing the total to 368 ships taken out of the market this year to date, he noted.

Meanwhile, only half of the ships being built have secured financing as liquidity is tight, he said.

According to Mr Chanet, the huge supply of ships had partly caused the collapse of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the major measure of shipping costs for commodities. The index has plummeted more than 90% from its peak of 11,793 in May this year to about 800 at present.

However, the index on Monday rose for a fourth straight session in London to 856 points, driven by handysize vessels for loads of less than 40,000 tonnes, and supramax and panamax ships.

Jutha remains optimistic that the downturn will not last long even though its major destination, Japan, has slid into recession.

"Japan has stopped buying from Thailand about a month ago," said Mr Chanet. "But demand for food including rice, starch, and sugar - the major items exported from Thailand to Japan - will soon pick up and it is cheaper buying from us than other arkets."

Jutha mostly carries food and consumer products to Asian markets, as well as Europe and the US. It has seven ships, six for charters and one liner. By mid-2009, Jutha will acquire another new ship for which 60% of the price had been paid, Mr Chanet said.

In the quarter to Sept 30, Jutha posted a net profit of 30.28 million baht, up 83% from the same period in 2007, on total revenue of 503 million baht. Nine-month profit totalled 96 million baht.

Jutha is on track to achieve its revenue target of 660 million baht for 2008, he said, adding that profit was expected to surpass the 171.5 million made last year.

Shares of Jutha closed yesterday on the SET at 3.40 baht, down two satang.